Risk Assessment of Storm Surges in Polder 48, Bangladesh

Department of Water Resources Engineering, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology, Dhaka 1000, Bangladesh
Email: mddeluarhossain2585@gmail.com (D.H.); sujoybiddyasundar1999@gmail.com (S.D.); amostafa@wre.buet.ac.bd (M.M.A.)
*Corresponding author
Manuscript received July 18, 2025; accepted August 22, 2025; published September 23, 2025

Abstract—Bangladesh is one of the most cyclone-prone nations in the world due to its geographical location. The coastal areas, particularly low-lying polders, are highly vulnerable to storm surges, leading to immense loss of life and property. This study focuses on storm surge risk analysis in Polder 48, located in Kalapara Upazila of Patuakhali District, Bangladesh, to support risk-informed planning and disaster preparedness. A compound risk framework is established by integrating inundation and vulnerability analysis. Inundation maps are developed for three storm surge scenarios corresponding to 6  m, 8  m, and 10  m surge heights in terms of volume–elevation relationships. Meanwhile, vulnerability maps are constructed based on Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) conditions of the study area. These maps are superimposed to obtain a composite risk map on the basis of the Risk Index as a product of inundation and vulnerability values. Results indicate that under a scenario of minor breaching, the majority of the area is exposed to moderate and low levels of risk. Under scenarios that include both breaching and overtopping, however, a considerable portion of the area is exposed to high and severe risk. The findings provide crucial data for policymakers and emergency planners to devise adequate storm surge mitigation strategies in coastal Bangladesh.

Keywords—storm surge risk assessment, polder system, coastal vulnerability, inundation mapping, Bangladesh coastal zone, climate change adaptation, GIS hazard modeling

Cite: Deluar Hossain, Sujoy Dey, and Md. Mostafa Ali, "Risk Assessment of Storm Surges in Polder 48, Bangladesh," International Journal of Sustainability in Energy and Environment, vol. 2, no. 2, pp. 70-79, 2025.

Copyright © 2025 by the authors. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited ( CC-BY-4.0).